The political economy of environmental regulation: evidence from sand mining in India with C. Gennaioli
Abstract. We study how regulation affects political control of the bureaucracy when it increases the value of bureaucratic discretion. A 2016 reform in India gave District Collectors authority over environmental permits for small sand mines. In districts more suitable for sand mining, the reform shortened Collector tenure, with the effect concentrated in political environments where politicians have greater capacity to exert pressure. Yet, turnover is only one margin of adjustment. Where tenure falls, the composition of Collectors assigned to the district does not change; where tenure is unaffected, Collector composition shifts instead. We rationalize this pattern with a framework in which politicians choose whether to bring forward a vacancy through early removal or wait for a routine vacancy and exercise influence over assignment. The results provide evidence consistent with turnover and selective assignment operating as substitute margins of political control: regulation that increases the value of bureaucratic discretion can change not only the intensity but also the form of political control over the bureaucracy.
Assessing the role of subsidies programmes on enhancing agricultural productivity and climate resilience, with A. Chongo [Funding: IGC]
Abstract: This paper examines whether Zambia’s Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP), a large-scale agricultural input subsidy programme, strengthens smallholder farmers’ resilience to production shocks. We combine nationally representative household panel data with external measures of exposure to the 2015/16 El Niño drought and the 2017/18 Fall Armyworm outbreak. Exploiting variation in shock exposure and the timing of FISP participation, we distinguish between the programme’s role in helping farmers cope with shocks and its potential to support longer-term adaptation. We find that households receiving FISP during both the drought and pest outbreak experienced substantially smaller maize yield losses associated with high shock exposure. However, this protection did not persist among households that had received FISP in earlier periods but not during the shock. FISP increases total fertiliser and hybrid seed use, while partly displacing commercial purchases, thereby also relaxing liquidity constraints. Consistent with this mechanism, beneficiaries were more likely to invest in pest-control equipment and soil conservation practices while receiving support. However, FISP participation was associated with fewer crops and greater maize specialisation. Overall, the findings suggest that FISP strengthens farmers’ capacity to cope with shocks when support is available, but provides limited evidence of longer-term adaptation.
Air Pollution and Agricultural Productivity. Evidence from Zambian Copper Mining, with A. Chongo and F. Dubois
Abstract: This paper examines how pollution from copper mining and smelting affects agricultural productivity in Zambia. We combine three waves of nationally representative farm-household data with pollution exposure based on distance and downwind location relative to mines. We find that smelter exposure increases maize yields among farmers relying on traditional production practices, but not among farmers using modern technologies. These effects conceal opposing changes in factor productivity: among traditional farmers, smelter exposure increases land productivity while reducing labour productivity, with the former effect dominating. The results are consistent with atmospheric nutrient deposition as the returns to modern agricultural inputs decline with smelter exposure, and SO2 pollution is specifically associated with smelter exposure. At the same time, smelter exposure is associated with adverse respiratory outcomes and reduces cassava productivity, highlighting the costs and crop-specific effects of pollution. Overall, the agricultural consequences of pollution depend on the factor of production, the technology used, and the crop cultivated.
Industrial Policy under Constraints: Evidence from Pakistan’s Export Subsidy Scheme, with Juan Gambetta Rossi and G. Varela [working paper][Replication package]
Abstract: We evaluate a major export subsidy programme in Pakistan's textile sector that applies differential rebate rates. Combining product-level event-study evidence with a separate synthetic control for each of four exhaustive textile categories, we find no detectable increase in aggregate textile exports. Over 2015-2019, the sum of the category estimates is approximately zero: USD 36 million per year, or -0.28 percent of the summed counterfactual. Garment and made-up exports exceed their counterfactuals by USD 983 million annually, offset by USD 1.020 billion in shortfalls among processed and lower-rate textiles. The composition of the observed upstream export contraction, together with broadly stable reported yarn production and rising apparent domestic availability, is consistent with a shift toward downstream processing at home. This evidence does not directly trace inputs to downstream producers. We derive a break-even welfare condition that makes explicit the net social benefits required to justify the policy's financing and implementation costs.
The Kinship Tax in Reverse: Family Obligations and Public Pensions in Mexico with Alessandro Giacardi
Abstract: This paper examines whether public old-age pensions reduce the “kinship tax” faced by adult children who support elderly parents. We exploit the expansion of non-contributory pensions in Mexico during the 2000s and longitudinal data from the Mexican Family Life Survey. Using variation in pension eligibility across parental age cohorts, locations, and the staggered rollout of state pension programmes, we study effects on intergenerational transfers and adult children’s economic behaviour. Preliminary results suggest that pension eligibility reduced some dimensions of family support, particularly co-residence, while effects on monetary transfers are negative but imprecisely estimated. We also find suggestive evidence of increased durable-goods ownership among adult children. The findings indicate that public pensions may affect not only elderly recipients but also the economic choices of family members who would otherwise contribute to their support.
(Misperceived) Power and Women Working Outside the Home in Lebanon, with E. Badaoui and E. Matteazzi [Pre-analysis plan]
Abstract: This paper investigates how women’s perceptions of the relationship between employment and empowerment shape their attitudes towards and interest in labour market participation in Lebanon. We use a two-stage experimental design. First, we elicit married men’s views on women’s employment and household decision. These results inform an information treatment administered to a sample of married women. We then combine a list experiment, revealed choices over job-related opportunities, and a vignette experiment to examine how information about men’s views affects women’s attitudes towards employment, their interest in labour-market opportunities, and their perceptions of the relationship between employment and intra-household power.
Others:
Village boundary demarcation and deforestation: Evidence from Indonesia
Off-farm labour supply and weather shocks in Nigeria: the role of gender norms, with O. Okoror, and S. Rawlings
Does climate change pose a risk to competitiveness? - Global firm level evidence with Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Ralf Martin and Misato Sato